Tuesday, 22 January 2013

Dangerous, Dave

The Prime Minister's speech tomorrow morning will, by definition, be important. As is current government tradition, we've been give a peek the night before, courtesy of the BBC.

So far, so formulaic. Labour have already responded with some drivel about how Cameron is "weak" or "not acting in the national interest", or something. I wasn't really listening. The key significance of tomorrow's speech - from a party-political point of view, at least - will be Cameron's move 'to the right' regarding the EU.

Miliband is unapologetically pro-EU. Thus Cameron's promise (ah, we love a good promise in politics) may attempt to shift the focus of the next General Election onto Europe: Labour are pro-EU, the Lib Dems even more so, and the public - Cameron hopes - rather more hostile.

Thus the promise of a referendum on condition that the Conservatives win in 2015 (it will be interesting to see if he mentions an outright majority) is something of a gamble. If the public take his promise seriously (ah, we love a good 'if' in politics) then it may seriously lessen the chance of another Conservative-Lib Dem coalition.

And that would see 2015 as a more polarised election, the Conservatives' right-wing credentials renewed. This leaves the centre-ground to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. And that, in this modern era of the political centre-ground, could be a very dangerous move for Dave.

No comments:

Post a Comment